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UK Economy - recession or mere turbulence?

Here's a view on the UK's economic outlook from Howard Reed, Chief Economist at the Institute for Public Policy Research, published in the New Statesman: Was Northern Rock the worst of it?

Despite huge stock market falls in the last two days, the balance of comment still appears to be that the underlying UK economy is in reasonable shape and whilst we can expect further tightening a recession is not on the cards.

Reports following analysis of January's Monetary Policy Committee minutes at Bloomberg and Channel 4 News illustrate current thinking (although the latter notes that George Soros, billionaire investor, disagrees. . . ).

No recession, I agree, but we certainly haven't seen the worst of the turbulence. In the business world I think there are many who have not yet come to terms with either the dramatic change in lenders' appetites or the effect the turbulence has had on consumer sentiment.

 

 

Date: 24th January, 2008
Author: Chris Laughton

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